The insights about COVID-19 and its spread published in the past week have been incredible. The increase in data and transparency is allowing us to better understand this virus.
The University of Oxford just published some excellent research outlining how quickly the team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease believes COVID-19 has spread.
I think the results will surprise you…
The assumptions used were all reasonable and backed by data already collected about COVID-19 and its basic reproductive rate (how fast it spreads). The team also assumed that COVID-19 first reached the U.K. by mid-January, which is a conservative assumption.
The research models determined that COVID-19 has already infected somewhere between 36% and 68% of the U.K. population.
That’s not a typo.
It’s highly likely that a third to more than half the population has had or has COVID-19… And most are asymptomatic. They don’t even know they have it.
This data is consistent with research just out of Iceland. Iceland is unique because it has tested nearly 5% of its entire population for COVID-19. On a percentage basis, this is more than any other country in the world.
It found that half of those who tested positive for COVID-19 are asymptomatic, and the other half display “very moderate cold-like symptoms.” Only 30 have been hospitalized out of the country’s 1,135 confirmed infections, with two deaths, as of this writing.
Additionally, Italy’s National Institute of Health released data that confirmed more than 99% of all COVID-19 fatalities were people already suffering from underlying medical conditions. Only 0.8% of the fatalities were healthy adults.
To put that in context, only 99 healthy adults have died from COVID-19 there.
Given the research out of Oxford and the basic reproductive rate of COVID-19, it’s not difficult to determine the exponential growth in the spread of COVID-19.
On March 1, I spoke with an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University who stated that the actual number of cases was likely 100–200 times larger than what was being reported.
But we don’t see those cases for the same reason as the research out of Iceland shows… The cases are asymptomatic or too mild to justify testing for it.
And here is why this latest research over the last few days is fantastic news for us all…
Johns Hopkins University reports that there are more than 883,225 confirmed cases. The reality is that there are almost certainly more than 88,322,500 cases.
That may seem scary, but it means that the actual mortality rate would be 0.049% or less. Compare that to the mortality rate from influenza in the 2017–2018 season (0.14%).
Every day, the data is giving us a lot to be optimistic about. The world is quickly building immunity to COVID-19.
Veritas in numeris.
Truth in numbers.
Regards,
Jeff Brown
Editor, Exponential Tech Investor
P.S. Numbers coming out confirm what we already knew to be the case – COVID-19 is ushering in a societal change that is slowing down the internet. Believe it or not, this is great news for us as tech investors.
According to Nokia, most wireless networks around the world see 30–45% growth in traffic over a year. But peak usage has jumped 20–40% over just the past several weeks.
These numbers are beyond crazy. And it’s all because people are staying home. And that will be a huge tailwind for 5G technology.
As you know, 5G promises to change the world in many ways… and it promises to unlock trillions of dollars in new wealth. But I believe the promise of 5G is even bigger than it was before.
Let me repeat that: The COVID-19 crisis has made the opportunity with 5G even bigger – and more urgent – than it already was.
That’s why on Wednesday, April 8, I’ll be holding my special State of 5G Summit.
During the event, I’ll show you why the mainstream media is 100% wrong about the coronavirus (as it pertains to the 5G rollout). Plus, I’ll give you details about three tiny 5G plays set to rocket 10–20x higher in the months ahead.
You can reserve your seat for my free event by clicking here.